A Developing Hurricane Could Bring Heavy Rain To The Southwest Next Week

All eyes are on Hurricane Ida out in the Gulf of Mexico, but there’s another storm we’ll have to watch in the coming days. A developing hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean could bring heavy rain to the desert Southwest by midweek.

Nora in the eastern Pacific is likely going to strengthen into a hurricane this weekend as it straddles Mexico’s west coast. The National Hurricane Center predicts that the system will thread through the Gulf of California early next week, bringing high winds and heavy rain to portions of the Baja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico. 

The storm will likely veer northward into the Sonoran Desert by early next week, quickly losing steam as the storm degenerates over land. The remnants of Nora will then move north over Arizona before racing into the central Rockies and merging with another weather system over the Plains states.

A surge of tropical moisture in the atmosphere will allow heavy rain to fall along the path of Nora’s remnants.

The Weather Prediction Center's 7-day rainfall forecast for the Southwest.

Forecast: NOAA/WPC | Map: Dennis Mersereau

The Weather Prediction Center’s forecast Friday night called for rainfall totals of 1-3 inches in parts of southern and central Arizona over the next week, much of which will fall as the remnants of Nora move through the region. Heavy rain is also possible in parts of southern Utah and western Colorado.

This is a mix of good and bad news for the Southwest. The bad news is that tropical downpours could easily lead to flash flooding. The desert soil is dense and impermeable, which means that heavy rains run off instead of immediately absorbing into the ground.

Drought improvement in the Southwest between June 22, 2021 (left) and August 24, 2021 (right).

Data: NDMC/USDA/NOAA | Map: Dennis Mersereau

However, the prospect of meaningful rain is decent news for the region’s long-term drought. Ample monsoon rains this summer have left a hefty dent in the drought across the region.

The Southwest has seen significant drought amelioration over the past two months, with many areas improving several categories on the U.S. Drought Monitor’s scale measuring the severity of drought conditions.

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