A map of the Weather Prediction Center's precipitation forecast between February 24, 2021 and March ... [+]
Rounds of heavy rain will sweep over the southeastern United States over the next couple of days, bringing much-needed precipitation to areas that have fallen behind in recent months. Some communities in the Mid-South could see more than half a foot of rain by next week. Areas that see the greatest totals could deal with flooding on some streams and rivers.
The Weather Prediction Center’s latest precipitation forecast calls for five or more inches of rain along a stretch from southern Arkansas to southern Kentucky. The upcoming rainfall will more closely resemble a marathon than a torrent. Several quick-hitting systems will move along a stationary front draped across the region and bring an extended period of gloomy, chilly conditions.
Four distinct rounds of rain are possible, one on each day between Friday and Monday. The axis of heavy rain could shift to the north or the south, but it’s a safe bet that most of the interior southeast will see decent totals.
A map of the U.S. Drought Monitor over the southeast for February 16, 2021.
It’s a little tough to deal with a renewed dose of dreariness after basking in a preview of spring’s warmth this week, but the rainfall is needed. Much of the region saw less than 90 percent of its normal wintertime precipitation this season, and parts of Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama were experiencing abnormal dryness or moderate drought conditions in last week’s update of the U.S. Drought Monitor.
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While the land needs a healthy round of steady precipitation, this much rain in just a couple of days could lead to flooding issues. There’s a chance of stream and river flooding in and around areas that experience the heaviest rainfall.
Even a small amount of flooding is dangerous if it spills onto nearby roads. Driving across a flooded roadway is incredibly risky to those inside the vehicle and the rescuers who have to come after them. It’s nearly impossible to tell how deep the water is until it’s too late, and it only takes about a foot of moving water to lift up a vehicle and carry it downstream.
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