I occasionally use this space for editorial commentary. This piece is one of those moments. During the record-setting 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, the state of Louisiana was within the hurricane cone for multiple weeks. According to University of Miami hurricane expert Brian Mcnoldy, Hurricane Zeta marked the fifth landfall during the state, three of which were hurricanes. In August, Hurricane Laura (2020) knocked out the National Weather Service radar at its Lake Charles office. Unfortunately, the same region faced threats from Hurricanes Delta (2020) and Zeta (2020), respectively, after Laura. As I sit at my computer tracking an unprecedented Hurricane Eta (yep, Eta), strong and rapidly intensifying storms in recent years raises the following question for me: Do we need more durable weather radar infrastructure for an era of stronger hurricanes?
NEXRAD Doppler radar in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria
The answer, in my opinion as a former President of the American Meteorological Society and scientist within the field, is “yes.” Thankfully, a mobile Doppler radar system was made available to fill in gaps left by the loss of the Lake Charles radar. Other National Weather Service radars in the area were operational too. However, there is a reason the Lake Charles radar was placed in that location. Washington Post Capital Weather Gang’s Matthew Cappucci wrote in the days leading up to Hurricane Delta, “Without the main Lake Charles radar, forecasters wouldn’t be able to see weather features in the lower atmosphere, below about 12,500 feet in altitude, including potential tornadoes and flood-inducing rain bands....” Hurricane Laura reached Category 4 strength, which on the Saffir-Simpson scale means winds in the 130-156 mph range.
A university-based mobile Doppler radar system was deployed to Louisiana after the NWS Lake Charles ... [+]
Recommended For You
During Hurricane Maria (2017), the National Weather Service San Juan weather radar was also destroyed. At the time, Maria was also a category 4 storm as it ravaged the island of Puerto Rico. It took nine months before the radar was restored. More recently, Super Typhoon Goni (2020) made landfall in the Philippines. Pictures surfaced on social media showing the remnants of a weather radar on one of the islands.
In 2018, the NEXRAD Radar Operations tweeted after Hurricane Maria, “In the history of the NEXRAD, only two radars have been lost to tropical systems: San Juan and the Dept of Defense's radar in Kadena Japan.” I suppose we can add Lake Charles now too. According to the NOAA Climate.gov website, the radar in Puerto Rico was designed to withstand maximum winds of 116 knots (133-134 miles per hour), which is on the lower end of a Category 4 storm. I actually started thinking about this question as a young graduate student at Florida State University after learning that Hurricane Andrew damaged the National Weather Service radar as it made its first landfall in south Florida. Is our radar infrastructure (and other weather observing capacity for that matter) ready for a generation of stronger storms?
Saffir-Simpson Scale
There is a lot of misinformation on the impact of climate change on hurricanes. However, actual scientific studies have trended towards consensus. The NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hosts an outstanding (and well updated) website on current thinking about climate change and hurricanes. Trust this site rather than your favorite Tweeter, Blogger or all-knowing Uncle. One finding is, “Tropical cyclone intensities globally will likely increase on average (by 1 to 10% according to model projections for a 2 degree Celsius global warming).” While the scientific studies are inconclusive on the frequency of storms (one of the misperceptions out there), it is increasingly clear that stronger storms are likely when they do happen (on average). According to the NOAA GFDL website, this “would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.”
If our current weather radar infrastructure is designed to withstand low-end Category 4 storms, then an era of stronger storms is likely to increase the probability of more radar damage or destruction. I am not naive so understand that there may be engineering limits at this point in time, but I have faith in very smart people. We can figure it out. With increasingly more people flocking to coastal regions, it is imperative that our weather radar infrastructure stand ready so that our forecasters are not “flying blind” during major hurricanes. To be clear, this is not a criticism of the National Weather Service. They do an amazing job keeping us safe with the resources that they are allocated. As I have written before, the ~$1 billion annual NWS budget is about the cost of a cup of coffee for every person in the U.S., which is huge return on investment to the nation. Instead, this is a cautionary note to our policymakers and leaders. We must move our planning mentality from “what is climate change going to do to our infrastructure?” to “what is it already doing to it?”
U.S. weather radar coverage
#News | https://sciencespies.com/news/more-durable-weather-radars-are-needed-for-an-era-of-stronger-hurricanes/
No comments:
Post a Comment