We awoke to Hurricane Isaias this morning. Overnight, the ninth storm, typically expected in October, strengthened to become the second hurricane of the Atlantic season. It is likely to affect the mainland United States in the coming days. Here's the latest information on the storm as it targets the U.S and some important ways to prepare during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Expected track of Hurricane Isaias
I wrote earlier in the week that we needed to keep an eye on the possibility of this tropical storm strengthening into a hurricane. Conventional wisdom (and meteorology) would haved suggested elevated terrain in Hispaniola and wind shear would suppress intensification. However, the storm found a way to thrive. The National Hurricane Center wrote Friday morning, "Strengthening is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane remains over the very warm waters near the Bahamas with reasonably low vertical shear." I think hurricane expert Eric Blake's tweet early Friday morning sums it up. The National Hurricane Center meteorologist said, "This job has no lack of surprises. System struggles for a week over water, hits mountains and becomes a hurricane." Hey Eric, it's 2020.
After moving through the Bahamas, a region still recovering from Hurricane Dorian, Isaias is expected to come very close to the eastern Florida coast. Residents from Florida to the mid-Atlantic region should monitor the storm closely given the following statement by National Hurricane Center forecasters, "It should be noted that given this large spread, the extended forecast could be subject to large speed/timing changes if either of those solutions become more likely." As of Friday morning, maximum sustained winds were 80 mph.
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Rainfall potential from Hurricane Isaias
What has worried me all year is the prospect of a busy hurricane season superimposed on a pandemic-ravaged U.S. It's happening, and we are still over a month from the climatological peak in the season and could see the tenth named storm this weekend. Even as I type this piece, the hurricane center is monitoring two additional areas that could develop in the coming days.
Five-day tropical weather outlook.
The graphic below shows the timeline of when tropical-storm or greater winds could impact parts of the South and East coasts, respectively. For now, it appears that the largest rainfall totals will remain offshore of Florida but could be more significant in the Carolinas if there is a landfall there. However, residents should continue to monitor the evolution of this storm and its potential impacts rather than get too focused the category. Storm surge, winds, tornadoes, and flooding are typically always a threat from storms like this.
Earliest arrival time for tropical storm-force winds
Unfortunately, the southern tier of the U.S. is one the regions suffocated by the surge in coronavirus right now (below). I urge people along the the southeastern and mid-Atlantic coasts to review their hurricane preparedness plans now but also add these considerations to the mix:
-Do you have face masks, soap, and hand sanitizer in your kits?
-Do you have disinfectant or wipes if you need to evacuate to a shelter?
-Do you know what shelters are open given Coronavirus conditions?
-Have you considered what counties are COVID-19 hotspots if evacuation is required?
For more information, visit Ready.gov and wear your masks.
Coronavirus cases as of July 31, 2020. (red = higher numbers)
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