Why Australia Is Grappling With Record-Breaking Heatwaves And Bushfires

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A fire burns in the Grose Valley in the Blue Mountains, Australia, Wednesday, Nov. 22, 2006. Fires ... [+] in many locations throughout the Blue Mountains burned unchecked as the rough mountain terrain made it impossible to access. Water bombing aircraft were used in major hot spots with fire authorities hoping for cooler conditions and more favorable winds. Australian firefighting authorities rushed hundreds of reinforcements to towns near several raging wildfires on Wednesday, as baking temperatures and swirling winds of around 100 kph (62 mph) fanned the flames past containment lines. (AP Photo/Rob Griffith)

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Australia had two of its hottest days on record earlier this week and nine of its hottest years on record have occurred since 2005 (2019 will likely be the second hottest year on record, globally). On Wednesday, the country experienced an average maximum temperature of 41.9°C (107.4°F).

Additionally, bushfires have burned an area that is 1.5 times larger than the state of Connecticut over the past two months. There are currently over 100 bushfires blazing across the Australian state of New South Wales and the Bureau of Meteorology said that the fire danger level in Sydney was on Saturday was at its highest (“catastrophic”). As a result, New South Wales Premier, Gladys Berejiklian declared a week-long state of emergency and is the second state of emergency declaration this month.

"The biggest concern over the next few days is the unpredictability, with extreme wind conditions [and] extremely hot temperatures," said Berejiklian.

The record-breaking heatwave appears to be a product of natural variability in atmospheric and oceanographic patterns as well as climate change. Australia is currently experiencing the consequences of a strong “Indian Ocean Dipole” event in a positive phase. Specifically, because sea surface temperatures in the western half of the ocean are much warmer than they are in the eastern ocean (the difference between them is the greatest that it has been in 60 years) and is causing unusually dry conditions. At the same time, the atmosphere above Antarctica has warmed, causing the “Southern Annular Mode” to be in a negative phase and brought dry, warm winds and extreme heat to Australia.

Together with climate change, these conditions have not only enabled stronger and more frequent bushfires but also caused a drought that limits water usage in Sydney, where freshwater availability is already in decline and dams could run dry by the year 2022.

“We're now seeing temperatures that are occurring outside what we'd expect from natural variability alone,” said Dr. Sophie Lewis, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales, “We'll definitely have to crunch the numbers on this week, but there are certainly cases where we've seen temperatures that are so extreme, that they are not what we'd expect without that additional kick from climate change.”

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