Medieval skeletons might be hiding a cancer rate far higher than expected

Cancer isn't just a modern-day affliction. A new archaeological analysis suggests malignant growths in medieval Britain were not as rare as we once thought. 

Even before widespread smoking, the Industrial Revolution, and the modern surge in life expectancy, it seems cancer was still a leading cause of disease.

Scanning and X-raying 143 medieval skeletons from six cemeteries in and around the city of Cambridge, archaeologists have predicted cancer cases between the 6th and the 16th century were roughly a quarter of what they are today.

That's 10 times higher than previous estimates, which had put cancer rates at less than one percent.

"Until now it was thought that the most significant causes of ill health in medieval people were infectious diseases such as dysentery and bubonic plague, along with malnutrition and injuries due to accidents or warfare," says archaeologist Jenna Dittmar from Cambridge University.

"We now have to add cancer as one of the major classes of disease that afflicted medieval people."

Past analyses of medieval skeletons in Britain have only focused on the exterior of the bone, but Dittmar and her colleagues decided to look for evidence of metastases within the bone, too. 

CT scan bone from a medieval skull with a white arrow showing metastasis. (Bram Mulder)

Scanning parts of the skeleton that are more likely to hold cancerous growths, such as the spinal column, the pelvis, and the thigh bone, the team found signs of malignancy in five individuals from medieval times. 

Most cases were confined to the pelvis, but there was one middle-aged man that had lesions scattered throughout his skeleton, which is indicative of blood cancer. 

Excavated medieval spine, with white arrows showing cancer metastases. (Jenna Dittmar)

"Using CT scans we were able to see cancer lesions hidden inside a bone that looked completely normal on the outside," says Dittmar. 

This type of scanning can detect bone metastases in patients about 75 percent of the time, and over a third of people today who die with cancer show evidence of these growths in their bones.

Based on these statistics, the authors think the minimum prevalence of all cancers in medieval Britain would have sat somewhere between 9 and 14 percent.

In the centuries since, that rate has surged. In modern Britain, where people live far longer, breathe more pollutants, and face more viruses, up to 50 percent of people have cancer by the time they die.

Figuring out how much cancer incidence has increased in recent years is important because it allows us to know where our greatest threats are coming from. Currently, it's still not completely clear how much tobacco smoking and pollutants have impacted our rates of disease as a whole because we don't have a baseline to work off.

Historic texts are not particularly trustworthy and are hard to compare to modern data, whereas archaeological remains are much more reliable, especially with the technology we've got today.

The sample size of the current study was obviously small and focused on only one region. It's also tricky business diagnosing cancer so many centuries later.  

Yet even with these caveats in mind, the findings suggest we have been missing many cases of medieval cancer by not looking within the bone.

"We need further studies using CT scanning of apparently normal skeletons in different regions and time periods to see how common cancer was in key civilizations of the past," says first author of the new research, archaeologist Piers Mitchell from Cambridge University. 

The study was published in Cancer. The paper is unavailable as of the time of publishing, but a pre-press proof of the study can be reviewed on Academia.edu.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/medieval-skeletons-might-be-hiding-a-cancer-rate-far-higher-than-expected/

Medieval skeletons might be hiding a cancer rate far higher than expected

Cancer isn't just a modern-day affliction. A new archaeological analysis suggests malignant growths in medieval Britain were not as rare as we once thought. 

Even before widespread smoking, the Industrial Revolution, and the modern surge in life expectancy, it seems cancer was still a leading cause of disease.

Scanning and X-raying 143 medieval skeletons from six cemeteries in and around the city of Cambridge, archaeologists have predicted cancer cases between the 6th and the 16th century were roughly a quarter of what they are today.

That's 10 times higher than previous estimates, which had put cancer rates at less than one percent.

"Until now it was thought that the most significant causes of ill health in medieval people were infectious diseases such as dysentery and bubonic plague, along with malnutrition and injuries due to accidents or warfare," says archaeologist Jenna Dittmar from Cambridge University.

"We now have to add cancer as one of the major classes of disease that afflicted medieval people."

Past analyses of medieval skeletons in Britain have only focused on the exterior of the bone, but Dittmar and her colleagues decided to look for evidence of metastases within the bone, too. 

CT scan bone from a medieval skull with a white arrow showing metastasis. (Bram Mulder)

Scanning parts of the skeleton that are more likely to hold cancerous growths, such as the spinal column, the pelvis, and the thigh bone, the team found signs of malignancy in five individuals from medieval times. 

Most cases were confined to the pelvis, but there was one middle-aged man that had lesions scattered throughout his skeleton, which is indicative of blood cancer. 

Excavated medieval spine, with white arrows showing cancer metastases. (Jenna Dittmar)

"Using CT scans we were able to see cancer lesions hidden inside a bone that looked completely normal on the outside," says Dittmar. 

This type of scanning can detect bone metastases in patients about 75 percent of the time, and over a third of people today who die with cancer show evidence of these growths in their bones.

Based on these statistics, the authors think the minimum prevalence of all cancers in medieval Britain would have sat somewhere between 9 and 14 percent.

In the centuries since, that rate has surged. In modern Britain, where people live far longer, breathe more pollutants, and face more viruses, up to 50 percent of people have cancer by the time they die.

Figuring out how much cancer incidence has increased in recent years is important because it allows us to know where our greatest threats are coming from. Currently, it's still not completely clear how much tobacco smoking and pollutants have impacted our rates of disease as a whole because we don't have a baseline to work off.

Historic texts are not particularly trustworthy and are hard to compare to modern data, whereas archaeological remains are much more reliable, especially with the technology we've got today.

The sample size of the current study was obviously small and focused on only one region. It's also tricky business diagnosing cancer so many centuries later.  

Yet even with these caveats in mind, the findings suggest we have been missing many cases of medieval cancer by not looking within the bone.

"We need further studies using CT scanning of apparently normal skeletons in different regions and time periods to see how common cancer was in key civilizations of the past," says first author of the new research, archaeologist Piers Mitchell from Cambridge University. 

The study was published in Cancer. The paper is unavailable as of the time of publishing, but a pre-press proof of the study can be reviewed on Academia.edu.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/medieval-skeletons-might-be-hiding-a-cancer-rate-far-higher-than-expected/

Medieval skeletons might be hiding a cancer rate far higher than expected

Cancer isn't just a modern-day affliction. A new archaeological analysis suggests malignant growths in medieval Britain were not as rare as we once thought. 

Even before widespread smoking, the Industrial Revolution, and the modern surge in life expectancy, it seems cancer was still a leading cause of disease.

Scanning and X-raying 143 medieval skeletons from six cemeteries in and around the city of Cambridge, archaeologists have predicted cancer cases between the 6th and the 16th century were roughly a quarter of what they are today.

That's 10 times higher than previous estimates, which had put cancer rates at less than one percent.

"Until now it was thought that the most significant causes of ill health in medieval people were infectious diseases such as dysentery and bubonic plague, along with malnutrition and injuries due to accidents or warfare," says archaeologist Jenna Dittmar from Cambridge University.

"We now have to add cancer as one of the major classes of disease that afflicted medieval people."

Past analyses of medieval skeletons in Britain have only focused on the exterior of the bone, but Dittmar and her colleagues decided to look for evidence of metastases within the bone, too. 

CT scan bone from a medieval skull with a white arrow showing metastasis. (Bram Mulder)

Scanning parts of the skeleton that are more likely to hold cancerous growths, such as the spinal column, the pelvis, and the thigh bone, the team found signs of malignancy in five individuals from medieval times. 

Most cases were confined to the pelvis, but there was one middle-aged man that had lesions scattered throughout his skeleton, which is indicative of blood cancer. 

Excavated medieval spine, with white arrows showing cancer metastases. (Jenna Dittmar)

"Using CT scans we were able to see cancer lesions hidden inside a bone that looked completely normal on the outside," says Dittmar. 

This type of scanning can detect bone metastases in patients about 75 percent of the time, and over a third of people today who die with cancer show evidence of these growths in their bones.

Based on these statistics, the authors think the minimum prevalence of all cancers in medieval Britain would have sat somewhere between 9 and 14 percent.

In the centuries since, that rate has surged. In modern Britain, where people live far longer, breathe more pollutants, and face more viruses, up to 50 percent of people have cancer by the time they die.

Figuring out how much cancer incidence has increased in recent years is important because it allows us to know where our greatest threats are coming from. Currently, it's still not completely clear how much tobacco smoking and pollutants have impacted our rates of disease as a whole because we don't have a baseline to work off.

Historic texts are not particularly trustworthy and are hard to compare to modern data, whereas archaeological remains are much more reliable, especially with the technology we've got today.

The sample size of the current study was obviously small and focused on only one region. It's also tricky business diagnosing cancer so many centuries later.  

Yet even with these caveats in mind, the findings suggest we have been missing many cases of medieval cancer by not looking within the bone.

"We need further studies using CT scanning of apparently normal skeletons in different regions and time periods to see how common cancer was in key civilizations of the past," says first author of the new research, archaeologist Piers Mitchell from Cambridge University. 

The study was published in Cancer. The paper is unavailable as of the time of publishing, but a pre-press proof of the study can be reviewed on Academia.edu.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/medieval-skeletons-might-be-hiding-a-cancer-rate-far-higher-than-expected/

Medieval skeletons might be hiding a cancer rate far higher than expected

Cancer isn't just a modern-day affliction. A new archaeological analysis suggests malignant growths in medieval Britain were not as rare as we once thought. 

Even before widespread smoking, the Industrial Revolution, and the modern surge in life expectancy, it seems cancer was still a leading cause of disease.

Scanning and X-raying 143 medieval skeletons from six cemeteries in and around the city of Cambridge, archaeologists have predicted cancer cases between the 6th and the 16th century were roughly a quarter of what they are today.

That's 10 times higher than previous estimates, which had put cancer rates at less than one percent.

"Until now it was thought that the most significant causes of ill health in medieval people were infectious diseases such as dysentery and bubonic plague, along with malnutrition and injuries due to accidents or warfare," says archaeologist Jenna Dittmar from Cambridge University.

"We now have to add cancer as one of the major classes of disease that afflicted medieval people."

Past analyses of medieval skeletons in Britain have only focused on the exterior of the bone, but Dittmar and her colleagues decided to look for evidence of metastases within the bone, too. 

CT scan bone from a medieval skull with a white arrow showing metastasis. (Bram Mulder)

Scanning parts of the skeleton that are more likely to hold cancerous growths, such as the spinal column, the pelvis, and the thigh bone, the team found signs of malignancy in five individuals from medieval times. 

Most cases were confined to the pelvis, but there was one middle-aged man that had lesions scattered throughout his skeleton, which is indicative of blood cancer. 

Excavated medieval spine, with white arrows showing cancer metastases. (Jenna Dittmar)

"Using CT scans we were able to see cancer lesions hidden inside a bone that looked completely normal on the outside," says Dittmar. 

This type of scanning can detect bone metastases in patients about 75 percent of the time, and over a third of people today who die with cancer show evidence of these growths in their bones.

Based on these statistics, the authors think the minimum prevalence of all cancers in medieval Britain would have sat somewhere between 9 and 14 percent.

In the centuries since, that rate has surged. In modern Britain, where people live far longer, breathe more pollutants, and face more viruses, up to 50 percent of people have cancer by the time they die.

Figuring out how much cancer incidence has increased in recent years is important because it allows us to know where our greatest threats are coming from. Currently, it's still not completely clear how much tobacco smoking and pollutants have impacted our rates of disease as a whole because we don't have a baseline to work off.

Historic texts are not particularly trustworthy and are hard to compare to modern data, whereas archaeological remains are much more reliable, especially with the technology we've got today.

The sample size of the current study was obviously small and focused on only one region. It's also tricky business diagnosing cancer so many centuries later.  

Yet even with these caveats in mind, the findings suggest we have been missing many cases of medieval cancer by not looking within the bone.

"We need further studies using CT scanning of apparently normal skeletons in different regions and time periods to see how common cancer was in key civilizations of the past," says first author of the new research, archaeologist Piers Mitchell from Cambridge University. 

The study was published in Cancer. The paper is unavailable as of the time of publishing, but a pre-press proof of the study can be reviewed on Academia.edu.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/medieval-skeletons-might-be-hiding-a-cancer-rate-far-higher-than-expected/

Medieval skeletons might be hiding a cancer rate far higher than expected

Cancer isn't just a modern-day affliction. A new archaeological analysis suggests malignant growths in medieval Britain were not as rare as we once thought. 

Even before widespread smoking, the Industrial Revolution, and the modern surge in life expectancy, it seems cancer was still a leading cause of disease.

Scanning and X-raying 143 medieval skeletons from six cemeteries in and around the city of Cambridge, archaeologists have predicted cancer cases between the 6th and the 16th century were roughly a quarter of what they are today.

That's 10 times higher than previous estimates, which had put cancer rates at less than one percent.

"Until now it was thought that the most significant causes of ill health in medieval people were infectious diseases such as dysentery and bubonic plague, along with malnutrition and injuries due to accidents or warfare," says archaeologist Jenna Dittmar from Cambridge University.

"We now have to add cancer as one of the major classes of disease that afflicted medieval people."

Past analyses of medieval skeletons in Britain have only focused on the exterior of the bone, but Dittmar and her colleagues decided to look for evidence of metastases within the bone, too. 

CT scan bone from a medieval skull with a white arrow showing metastasis. (Bram Mulder)

Scanning parts of the skeleton that are more likely to hold cancerous growths, such as the spinal column, the pelvis, and the thigh bone, the team found signs of malignancy in five individuals from medieval times. 

Most cases were confined to the pelvis, but there was one middle-aged man that had lesions scattered throughout his skeleton, which is indicative of blood cancer. 

Excavated medieval spine, with white arrows showing cancer metastases. (Jenna Dittmar)

"Using CT scans we were able to see cancer lesions hidden inside a bone that looked completely normal on the outside," says Dittmar. 

This type of scanning can detect bone metastases in patients about 75 percent of the time, and over a third of people today who die with cancer show evidence of these growths in their bones.

Based on these statistics, the authors think the minimum prevalence of all cancers in medieval Britain would have sat somewhere between 9 and 14 percent.

In the centuries since, that rate has surged. In modern Britain, where people live far longer, breathe more pollutants, and face more viruses, up to 50 percent of people have cancer by the time they die.

Figuring out how much cancer incidence has increased in recent years is important because it allows us to know where our greatest threats are coming from. Currently, it's still not completely clear how much tobacco smoking and pollutants have impacted our rates of disease as a whole because we don't have a baseline to work off.

Historic texts are not particularly trustworthy and are hard to compare to modern data, whereas archaeological remains are much more reliable, especially with the technology we've got today.

The sample size of the current study was obviously small and focused on only one region. It's also tricky business diagnosing cancer so many centuries later.  

Yet even with these caveats in mind, the findings suggest we have been missing many cases of medieval cancer by not looking within the bone.

"We need further studies using CT scanning of apparently normal skeletons in different regions and time periods to see how common cancer was in key civilizations of the past," says first author of the new research, archaeologist Piers Mitchell from Cambridge University. 

The study was published in Cancer. The paper is unavailable as of the time of publishing, but a pre-press proof of the study can be reviewed on Academia.edu.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/medieval-skeletons-might-be-hiding-a-cancer-rate-far-higher-than-expected/

Dynetics HLS protest argues NASA should have revised competition after budget shortfall

WASHINGTON — NASA should have revised its approach to the Human Landing System (HLS) program or withdrawn the solicitation entirely once it was clear the agency didn’t have the funding to support two companies, one of the losing bidders argues in its protest of the award.

Dynetics, who filed a protest April 26 with the Government Accountability Office over NASA’s decision to make a single HLS “Option A” award to SpaceX, argued NASA chose “the most anti-competitive and high risk option available” when it decided to proceed with a single award despite receiving only about one fourth of the $3.3 billion it requested for the program in fiscal year 2021.

“In light of this new budget constraint and schedule change, the HLS program as originally conceived and as set forth in the Solicitation is no longer executable,” Dynetics said in its protest, a copy of which was obtained by SpaceNews. “Accordingly, NASA had several reasonable (and lawful) alternatives to choose from in connection with this acquisition.”

Those alternatives, the company argued, included amending the solicitation or withdrawing it entirely and starting over “given its incompatibility with the severe budget constraints” NASA faced. The agency could also have opened discussions with the bidders and allow them to revise their proposals, something NASA did only with SpaceX.

One option, sources familiar with the protest told SpaceNews, was for NASA to make multiple awards for a particular contract line item number, or CLIN, in the request for proposals for “sustaining requirements and preliminary design.” That would have allowed companies to work on concepts for a lander for the later, more sustainable phase of the Artemis program.

“This whole mechanism was set up to be very flexible, and they didn’t really use the flexibility they had,” a source said.

NASA’s decision, Dynetics argues, effectively locks SpaceX in as the lunar lander provider for the foreseeable future. “In making this decision, NASA walked away from the ground rules for the HLS program, effectively converting this Option A award into a lowest-priced, technically acceptable (‘LPTA’) competition and eschewing any future competition for the HLS program,” the protest states. “Indeed, the anti-competitive impact and downstream effect of NASA’s changed acquisition strategy cannot be overstated.”

NASA has said it will pursue competition in a later competition for follow-on lunar lander services. The agency released a request for information (RFI) April 28 asking companies for feedback on a future Lunar Exploration Transportation Services (LETS) contract. That would allow companies to sell to NASA “routine transportation services” for astronauts in the Artemis program.

“We’re still a few steps away from being able to issue the LETS contract request for proposals,” Lisa Watson-Morgan, NASA HLS program manager, said in a statement about LETS. “We are continuing our quest to refine acquisition strategies to ensure government-industry partnerships are streamlined for companies that want to become providers — to the government and other clients — in the emerging lunar marketplace.”

However, industry sources say they don’t understand why NASA didn’t take advantage of the flexibility in the HLS solicitation to allow it to support other providers now through the sustainable lander option in the HLS solicitation. “There are knobs that NASA can turn to keep competition now,” a source said. “Putting out an RFI for something that’s a couple years from now, well, there’s not going to be anybody left.”

“Two years from now, other than billionaires who can choose to keep things around, you’re not going to have others left in the game that are going to give you real competition,” the source added.

The other aspect of Dynetics’ protest was NASA’s evaluation of its proposal. The company complained that NASA used “unstated evaluation criteria” to downgrade its proposal. It cited as evidence of that several attributes of its lander rated a “significant strength” by NASA when receiving its base period HLS award a year ago that were only rated a “strength” in the Option A competition, despite not changing.

“The Dynetics design was not altered, only refined — what must have changed were NASA’s technical and programmatic evaluation criteria,” the company stated in its protest.

Many of the specific technical arguments it made are redacted in the version of the protest obtained by SpaceNews. The same is true for its price, which NASA said only that it was “significantly higher” than Blue Origin’s bid of $5.99 billion. Sources familiar with the protest noted that NASA did consider Dynetics’ price to be “fair, reasonable, and balanced,” as the agency noted in its source selection statement.

Dynetics also claimed that NASA overlooked weaknesses in SpaceX’s proposal. “NASA failed to consider the risks inherent in SpaceX’s technical approach and, more specifically, information too close at hand for NASA to ignore — i.e., that four SpaceX Starships have exploded at various stages of their tests flights in recent months,” the protest states. “NASA has given SpaceX a pass on its demonstrable lack of such systems engineering.”

In its protest, Dynetics requested NASA “immediately implement an automatic stay of the awardee’s contract performance pending the resolution of this protest.” NASA Acting Administrator Steve Jurczyk said April 27 that it was still to be determined if NASA needed to halt work on SpaceX’s contract. The agency did not respond to a request for comment April 29 on if it had decided it needed to stop work on the HLS award to SpaceX.

#Space | https://sciencespies.com/space/dynetics-hls-protest-argues-nasa-should-have-revised-competition-after-budget-shortfall/

Dynetics HLS protest argues NASA should have revised competition after budget shortfall

WASHINGTON — NASA should have revised its approach to the Human Landing System (HLS) program or withdrawn the solicitation entirely once it was clear the agency didn’t have the funding to support two companies, one of the losing bidders argues in its protest of the award.

Dynetics, who filed a protest April 26 with the Government Accountability Office over NASA’s decision to make a single HLS “Option A” award to SpaceX, argued NASA chose “the most anti-competitive and high risk option available” when it decided to proceed with a single award despite receiving only about one fourth of the $3.3 billion it requested for the program in fiscal year 2021.

“In light of this new budget constraint and schedule change, the HLS program as originally conceived and as set forth in the Solicitation is no longer executable,” Dynetics said in its protest, a copy of which was obtained by SpaceNews. “Accordingly, NASA had several reasonable (and lawful) alternatives to choose from in connection with this acquisition.”

Those alternatives, the company argued, included amending the solicitation or withdrawing it entirely and starting over “given its incompatibility with the severe budget constraints” NASA faced. The agency could also have opened discussions with the bidders and allow them to revise their proposals, something NASA did only with SpaceX.

One option, sources familiar with the protest told SpaceNews, was for NASA to make multiple awards for a particular contract line item number, or CLIN, in the request for proposals for “sustaining requirements and preliminary design.” That would have allowed companies to work on concepts for a lander for the later, more sustainable phase of the Artemis program.

“This whole mechanism was set up to be very flexible, and they didn’t really use the flexibility they had,” a source said.

NASA’s decision, Dynetics argues, effectively locks SpaceX in as the lunar lander provider for the foreseeable future. “In making this decision, NASA walked away from the ground rules for the HLS program, effectively converting this Option A award into a lowest-priced, technically acceptable (‘LPTA’) competition and eschewing any future competition for the HLS program,” the protest states. “Indeed, the anti-competitive impact and downstream effect of NASA’s changed acquisition strategy cannot be overstated.”

NASA has said it will pursue competition in a later competition for follow-on lunar lander services. The agency released a request for information (RFI) April 28 asking companies for feedback on a future Lunar Exploration Transportation Services (LETS) contract. That would allow companies to sell to NASA “routine transportation services” for astronauts in the Artemis program.

“We’re still a few steps away from being able to issue the LETS contract request for proposals,” Lisa Watson-Morgan, NASA HLS program manager, said in a statement about LETS. “We are continuing our quest to refine acquisition strategies to ensure government-industry partnerships are streamlined for companies that want to become providers — to the government and other clients — in the emerging lunar marketplace.”

However, industry sources say they don’t understand why NASA didn’t take advantage of the flexibility in the HLS solicitation to allow it to support other providers now through the sustainable lander option in the HLS solicitation. “There are knobs that NASA can turn to keep competition now,” a source said. “Putting out an RFI for something that’s a couple years from now, well, there’s not going to be anybody left.”

“Two years from now, other than billionaires who can choose to keep things around, you’re not going to have others left in the game that are going to give you real competition,” the source added.

The other aspect of Dynetics’ protest was NASA’s evaluation of its proposal. The company complained that NASA used “unstated evaluation criteria” to downgrade its proposal. It cited as evidence of that several attributes of its lander rated a “significant strength” by NASA when receiving its base period HLS award a year ago that were only rated a “strength” in the Option A competition, despite not changing.

“The Dynetics design was not altered, only refined — what must have changed were NASA’s technical and programmatic evaluation criteria,” the company stated in its protest.

Many of the specific technical arguments it made are redacted in the version of the protest obtained by SpaceNews. The same is true for its price, which NASA said only that it was “significantly higher” than Blue Origin’s bid of $5.99 billion. Sources familiar with the protest noted that NASA did consider Dynetics’ price to be “fair, reasonable, and balanced,” as the agency noted in its source selection statement.

Dynetics also claimed that NASA overlooked weaknesses in SpaceX’s proposal. “NASA failed to consider the risks inherent in SpaceX’s technical approach and, more specifically, information too close at hand for NASA to ignore — i.e., that four SpaceX Starships have exploded at various stages of their tests flights in recent months,” the protest states. “NASA has given SpaceX a pass on its demonstrable lack of such systems engineering.”

In its protest, Dynetics requested NASA “immediately implement an automatic stay of the awardee’s contract performance pending the resolution of this protest.” NASA Acting Administrator Steve Jurczyk said April 27 that it was still to be determined if NASA needed to halt work on SpaceX’s contract. The agency did not respond to a request for comment April 29 on if it had decided it needed to stop work on the HLS award to SpaceX.

#Space | https://sciencespies.com/space/dynetics-hls-protest-argues-nasa-should-have-revised-competition-after-budget-shortfall/

Dynetics HLS protest argues NASA should have revised competition after budget shortfall

WASHINGTON — NASA should have revised its approach to the Human Landing System (HLS) program or withdrawn the solicitation entirely once it was clear the agency didn’t have the funding to support two companies, one of the losing bidders argues in its protest of the award.

Dynetics, who filed a protest April 26 with the Government Accountability Office over NASA’s decision to make a single HLS “Option A” award to SpaceX, argued NASA chose “the most anti-competitive and high risk option available” when it decided to proceed with a single award despite receiving only about one fourth of the $3.3 billion it requested for the program in fiscal year 2021.

“In light of this new budget constraint and schedule change, the HLS program as originally conceived and as set forth in the Solicitation is no longer executable,” Dynetics said in its protest, a copy of which was obtained by SpaceNews. “Accordingly, NASA had several reasonable (and lawful) alternatives to choose from in connection with this acquisition.”

Those alternatives, the company argued, included amending the solicitation or withdrawing it entirely and starting over “given its incompatibility with the severe budget constraints” NASA faced. The agency could also have opened discussions with the bidders and allow them to revise their proposals, something NASA did only with SpaceX.

One option, sources familiar with the protest told SpaceNews, was for NASA to make multiple awards for a particular contract line item number, or CLIN, in the request for proposals for “sustaining requirements and preliminary design.” That would have allowed companies to work on concepts for a lander for the later, more sustainable phase of the Artemis program.

“This whole mechanism was set up to be very flexible, and they didn’t really use the flexibility they had,” a source said.

NASA’s decision, Dynetics argues, effectively locks SpaceX in as the lunar lander provider for the foreseeable future. “In making this decision, NASA walked away from the ground rules for the HLS program, effectively converting this Option A award into a lowest-priced, technically acceptable (‘LPTA’) competition and eschewing any future competition for the HLS program,” the protest states. “Indeed, the anti-competitive impact and downstream effect of NASA’s changed acquisition strategy cannot be overstated.”

NASA has said it will pursue competition in a later competition for follow-on lunar lander services. The agency released a request for information (RFI) April 28 asking companies for feedback on a future Lunar Exploration Transportation Services (LETS) contract. That would allow companies to sell to NASA “routine transportation services” for astronauts in the Artemis program.

“We’re still a few steps away from being able to issue the LETS contract request for proposals,” Lisa Watson-Morgan, NASA HLS program manager, said in a statement about LETS. “We are continuing our quest to refine acquisition strategies to ensure government-industry partnerships are streamlined for companies that want to become providers — to the government and other clients — in the emerging lunar marketplace.”

However, industry sources say they don’t understand why NASA didn’t take advantage of the flexibility in the HLS solicitation to allow it to support other providers now through the sustainable lander option in the HLS solicitation. “There are knobs that NASA can turn to keep competition now,” a source said. “Putting out an RFI for something that’s a couple years from now, well, there’s not going to be anybody left.”

“Two years from now, other than billionaires who can choose to keep things around, you’re not going to have others left in the game that are going to give you real competition,” the source added.

The other aspect of Dynetics’ protest was NASA’s evaluation of its proposal. The company complained that NASA used “unstated evaluation criteria” to downgrade its proposal. It cited as evidence of that several attributes of its lander rated a “significant strength” by NASA when receiving its base period HLS award a year ago that were only rated a “strength” in the Option A competition, despite not changing.

“The Dynetics design was not altered, only refined — what must have changed were NASA’s technical and programmatic evaluation criteria,” the company stated in its protest.

Many of the specific technical arguments it made are redacted in the version of the protest obtained by SpaceNews. The same is true for its price, which NASA said only that it was “significantly higher” than Blue Origin’s bid of $5.99 billion. Sources familiar with the protest noted that NASA did consider Dynetics’ price to be “fair, reasonable, and balanced,” as the agency noted in its source selection statement.

Dynetics also claimed that NASA overlooked weaknesses in SpaceX’s proposal. “NASA failed to consider the risks inherent in SpaceX’s technical approach and, more specifically, information too close at hand for NASA to ignore — i.e., that four SpaceX Starships have exploded at various stages of their tests flights in recent months,” the protest states. “NASA has given SpaceX a pass on its demonstrable lack of such systems engineering.”

In its protest, Dynetics requested NASA “immediately implement an automatic stay of the awardee’s contract performance pending the resolution of this protest.” NASA Acting Administrator Steve Jurczyk said April 27 that it was still to be determined if NASA needed to halt work on SpaceX’s contract. The agency did not respond to a request for comment April 29 on if it had decided it needed to stop work on the HLS award to SpaceX.

#Space | https://sciencespies.com/space/dynetics-hls-protest-argues-nasa-should-have-revised-competition-after-budget-shortfall/

Dynetics HLS protest argues NASA should have revised competition after budget shortfall

WASHINGTON — NASA should have revised its approach to the Human Landing System (HLS) program or withdrawn the solicitation entirely once it was clear the agency didn’t have the funding to support two companies, one of the losing bidders argues in its protest of the award.

Dynetics, who filed a protest April 26 with the Government Accountability Office over NASA’s decision to make a single HLS “Option A” award to SpaceX, argued NASA chose “the most anti-competitive and high risk option available” when it decided to proceed with a single award despite receiving only about one fourth of the $3.3 billion it requested for the program in fiscal year 2021.

“In light of this new budget constraint and schedule change, the HLS program as originally conceived and as set forth in the Solicitation is no longer executable,” Dynetics said in its protest, a copy of which was obtained by SpaceNews. “Accordingly, NASA had several reasonable (and lawful) alternatives to choose from in connection with this acquisition.”

Those alternatives, the company argued, included amending the solicitation or withdrawing it entirely and starting over “given its incompatibility with the severe budget constraints” NASA faced. The agency could also have opened discussions with the bidders and allow them to revise their proposals, something NASA did only with SpaceX.

One option, sources familiar with the protest told SpaceNews, was for NASA to make multiple awards for a particular contract line item number, or CLIN, in the request for proposals for “sustaining requirements and preliminary design.” That would have allowed companies to work on concepts for a lander for the later, more sustainable phase of the Artemis program.

“This whole mechanism was set up to be very flexible, and they didn’t really use the flexibility they had,” a source said.

NASA’s decision, Dynetics argues, effectively locks SpaceX in as the lunar lander provider for the foreseeable future. “In making this decision, NASA walked away from the ground rules for the HLS program, effectively converting this Option A award into a lowest-priced, technically acceptable (‘LPTA’) competition and eschewing any future competition for the HLS program,” the protest states. “Indeed, the anti-competitive impact and downstream effect of NASA’s changed acquisition strategy cannot be overstated.”

NASA has said it will pursue competition in a later competition for follow-on lunar lander services. The agency released a request for information (RFI) April 28 asking companies for feedback on a future Lunar Exploration Transportation Services (LETS) contract. That would allow companies to sell to NASA “routine transportation services” for astronauts in the Artemis program.

“We’re still a few steps away from being able to issue the LETS contract request for proposals,” Lisa Watson-Morgan, NASA HLS program manager, said in a statement about LETS. “We are continuing our quest to refine acquisition strategies to ensure government-industry partnerships are streamlined for companies that want to become providers — to the government and other clients — in the emerging lunar marketplace.”

However, industry sources say they don’t understand why NASA didn’t take advantage of the flexibility in the HLS solicitation to allow it to support other providers now through the sustainable lander option in the HLS solicitation. “There are knobs that NASA can turn to keep competition now,” a source said. “Putting out an RFI for something that’s a couple years from now, well, there’s not going to be anybody left.”

“Two years from now, other than billionaires who can choose to keep things around, you’re not going to have others left in the game that are going to give you real competition,” the source added.

The other aspect of Dynetics’ protest was NASA’s evaluation of its proposal. The company complained that NASA used “unstated evaluation criteria” to downgrade its proposal. It cited as evidence of that several attributes of its lander rated a “significant strength” by NASA when receiving its base period HLS award a year ago that were only rated a “strength” in the Option A competition, despite not changing.

“The Dynetics design was not altered, only refined — what must have changed were NASA’s technical and programmatic evaluation criteria,” the company stated in its protest.

Many of the specific technical arguments it made are redacted in the version of the protest obtained by SpaceNews. The same is true for its price, which NASA said only that it was “significantly higher” than Blue Origin’s bid of $5.99 billion. Sources familiar with the protest noted that NASA did consider Dynetics’ price to be “fair, reasonable, and balanced,” as the agency noted in its source selection statement.

Dynetics also claimed that NASA overlooked weaknesses in SpaceX’s proposal. “NASA failed to consider the risks inherent in SpaceX’s technical approach and, more specifically, information too close at hand for NASA to ignore — i.e., that four SpaceX Starships have exploded at various stages of their tests flights in recent months,” the protest states. “NASA has given SpaceX a pass on its demonstrable lack of such systems engineering.”

In its protest, Dynetics requested NASA “immediately implement an automatic stay of the awardee’s contract performance pending the resolution of this protest.” NASA Acting Administrator Steve Jurczyk said April 27 that it was still to be determined if NASA needed to halt work on SpaceX’s contract. The agency did not respond to a request for comment April 29 on if it had decided it needed to stop work on the HLS award to SpaceX.

#Space | https://sciencespies.com/space/dynetics-hls-protest-argues-nasa-should-have-revised-competition-after-budget-shortfall/

Scientists find oldest evidence of ancient human activity deep inside a desert cave

The Wonderwerk Cave site in South Africa is one of very few places on Earth where human activity can be traced back continuously across millennia, and scientists just established the oldest evidence of archaic human habitation in the cave: some 1.8 million years ago.

That's based on an analysis of sedimentary layers containing animal bones, the remnants of burning fires, and Oldowan stone tools: Objects made from simple rocks with flakes chipped off to sharpen them, representing what was once a significant step forward in tool technology.

While tool artifacts at other sites have been backdated as far as 3.3 million years ago, the new findings are now thought to be the earliest sign of continuous prehistoric human living inside a cave – with the use of fire and tools in one fixed location indoors.

The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," says geologist Ron Shaar from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

"Wonderwerk is unique among ancient Oldowan sites, a tool-type first found 2.6 million years ago in East Africa, precisely because it is a cave and not an open-air occurrence." 

While ancient evidence of wildfires and human fires might get mixed up in open-air sites, that's not the case in the Wonderwerk Cave. What's more, other indicators of humans making fires were found: burnt bones and ash, for example, as well as the tools.

The sediment sample examined in the new study was 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) thick, charting hominin activity in the cave over time. Layers were dated in two ways, first through paleomagnetism, measuring the magnetic signal from clay particles that had drifted into the cave.

These signals, trapped in time, show the direction of Earth's magnetic field in history. As the variation and flipping of this field across the centuries can be charted, scientists can date the clay particles and everything deposited with them.

Secondly, the researchers used burial dating, an analysis of the radioactive decay of particles as they drift out of the glare of cosmic radiation and get buried underground, or, in this case, inside a cave.

Inside the Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"Quartz particles in sand have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave," says geologist Ari Matmon from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"In our lab, we are able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."

As well as recording the use of Oldowan tools as far back as 1.8 million years ago, the team also spotted the transition to more complex hand axes (over 1 million years ago) and the first deliberate use of fire (around 1 million years ago).

While exciting discoveries continue to be made all across the world, very few places offer such a consistent record of ancient human comings and goings as the sediment layers inside the Wonderwerk Cave – as the new study shows.

"The precise ages of the Wonderwerk sediments are crucial for our understanding of the timing of critical events in hominin biological and cultural evolution in the region," write the researchers in their published paper.

The research has been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/scientists-find-oldest-evidence-of-ancient-human-activity-deep-inside-a-desert-cave/

Scientists find oldest evidence of ancient human activity deep inside a desert cave

The Wonderwerk Cave site in South Africa is one of very few places on Earth where human activity can be traced back continuously across millennia, and scientists just established the oldest evidence of archaic human habitation in the cave: some 1.8 million years ago.

That's based on an analysis of sedimentary layers containing animal bones, the remnants of burning fires, and Oldowan stone tools: Objects made from simple rocks with flakes chipped off to sharpen them, representing what was once a significant step forward in tool technology.

While tool artifacts at other sites have been backdated as far as 3.3 million years ago, the new findings are now thought to be the earliest sign of continuous prehistoric human living inside a cave – with the use of fire and tools in one fixed location indoors.

The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," says geologist Ron Shaar from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

"Wonderwerk is unique among ancient Oldowan sites, a tool-type first found 2.6 million years ago in East Africa, precisely because it is a cave and not an open-air occurrence." 

While ancient evidence of wildfires and human fires might get mixed up in open-air sites, that's not the case in the Wonderwerk Cave. What's more, other indicators of humans making fires were found: burnt bones and ash, for example, as well as the tools.

The sediment sample examined in the new study was 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) thick, charting hominin activity in the cave over time. Layers were dated in two ways, first through paleomagnetism, measuring the magnetic signal from clay particles that had drifted into the cave.

These signals, trapped in time, show the direction of Earth's magnetic field in history. As the variation and flipping of this field across the centuries can be charted, scientists can date the clay particles and everything deposited with them.

Secondly, the researchers used burial dating, an analysis of the radioactive decay of particles as they drift out of the glare of cosmic radiation and get buried underground, or, in this case, inside a cave.

Inside the Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"Quartz particles in sand have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave," says geologist Ari Matmon from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"In our lab, we are able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."

As well as recording the use of Oldowan tools as far back as 1.8 million years ago, the team also spotted the transition to more complex hand axes (over 1 million years ago) and the first deliberate use of fire (around 1 million years ago).

While exciting discoveries continue to be made all across the world, very few places offer such a consistent record of ancient human comings and goings as the sediment layers inside the Wonderwerk Cave – as the new study shows.

"The precise ages of the Wonderwerk sediments are crucial for our understanding of the timing of critical events in hominin biological and cultural evolution in the region," write the researchers in their published paper.

The research has been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/scientists-find-oldest-evidence-of-ancient-human-activity-deep-inside-a-desert-cave/

Scientists find oldest evidence of ancient human activity deep inside a desert cave

The Wonderwerk Cave site in South Africa is one of very few places on Earth where human activity can be traced back continuously across millennia, and scientists just established the oldest evidence of archaic human habitation in the cave: some 1.8 million years ago.

That's based on an analysis of sedimentary layers containing animal bones, the remnants of burning fires, and Oldowan stone tools: Objects made from simple rocks with flakes chipped off to sharpen them, representing what was once a significant step forward in tool technology.

While tool artifacts at other sites have been backdated as far as 3.3 million years ago, the new findings are now thought to be the earliest sign of continuous prehistoric human living inside a cave – with the use of fire and tools in one fixed location indoors.

The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," says geologist Ron Shaar from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

"Wonderwerk is unique among ancient Oldowan sites, a tool-type first found 2.6 million years ago in East Africa, precisely because it is a cave and not an open-air occurrence." 

While ancient evidence of wildfires and human fires might get mixed up in open-air sites, that's not the case in the Wonderwerk Cave. What's more, other indicators of humans making fires were found: burnt bones and ash, for example, as well as the tools.

The sediment sample examined in the new study was 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) thick, charting hominin activity in the cave over time. Layers were dated in two ways, first through paleomagnetism, measuring the magnetic signal from clay particles that had drifted into the cave.

These signals, trapped in time, show the direction of Earth's magnetic field in history. As the variation and flipping of this field across the centuries can be charted, scientists can date the clay particles and everything deposited with them.

Secondly, the researchers used burial dating, an analysis of the radioactive decay of particles as they drift out of the glare of cosmic radiation and get buried underground, or, in this case, inside a cave.

Inside the Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"Quartz particles in sand have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave," says geologist Ari Matmon from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"In our lab, we are able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."

As well as recording the use of Oldowan tools as far back as 1.8 million years ago, the team also spotted the transition to more complex hand axes (over 1 million years ago) and the first deliberate use of fire (around 1 million years ago).

While exciting discoveries continue to be made all across the world, very few places offer such a consistent record of ancient human comings and goings as the sediment layers inside the Wonderwerk Cave – as the new study shows.

"The precise ages of the Wonderwerk sediments are crucial for our understanding of the timing of critical events in hominin biological and cultural evolution in the region," write the researchers in their published paper.

The research has been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/scientists-find-oldest-evidence-of-ancient-human-activity-deep-inside-a-desert-cave/

Scientists find oldest evidence of ancient human activity deep inside a desert cave

The Wonderwerk Cave site in South Africa is one of very few places on Earth where human activity can be traced back continuously across millennia, and scientists just established the oldest evidence of archaic human habitation in the cave: some 1.8 million years ago.

That's based on an analysis of sedimentary layers containing animal bones, the remnants of burning fires, and Oldowan stone tools: Objects made from simple rocks with flakes chipped off to sharpen them, representing what was once a significant step forward in tool technology.

While tool artifacts at other sites have been backdated as far as 3.3 million years ago, the new findings are now thought to be the earliest sign of continuous prehistoric human living inside a cave – with the use of fire and tools in one fixed location indoors.

The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," says geologist Ron Shaar from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

"Wonderwerk is unique among ancient Oldowan sites, a tool-type first found 2.6 million years ago in East Africa, precisely because it is a cave and not an open-air occurrence." 

While ancient evidence of wildfires and human fires might get mixed up in open-air sites, that's not the case in the Wonderwerk Cave. What's more, other indicators of humans making fires were found: burnt bones and ash, for example, as well as the tools.

The sediment sample examined in the new study was 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) thick, charting hominin activity in the cave over time. Layers were dated in two ways, first through paleomagnetism, measuring the magnetic signal from clay particles that had drifted into the cave.

These signals, trapped in time, show the direction of Earth's magnetic field in history. As the variation and flipping of this field across the centuries can be charted, scientists can date the clay particles and everything deposited with them.

Secondly, the researchers used burial dating, an analysis of the radioactive decay of particles as they drift out of the glare of cosmic radiation and get buried underground, or, in this case, inside a cave.

Inside the Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"Quartz particles in sand have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave," says geologist Ari Matmon from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"In our lab, we are able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."

As well as recording the use of Oldowan tools as far back as 1.8 million years ago, the team also spotted the transition to more complex hand axes (over 1 million years ago) and the first deliberate use of fire (around 1 million years ago).

While exciting discoveries continue to be made all across the world, very few places offer such a consistent record of ancient human comings and goings as the sediment layers inside the Wonderwerk Cave – as the new study shows.

"The precise ages of the Wonderwerk sediments are crucial for our understanding of the timing of critical events in hominin biological and cultural evolution in the region," write the researchers in their published paper.

The research has been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/scientists-find-oldest-evidence-of-ancient-human-activity-deep-inside-a-desert-cave/

Scientists find oldest evidence of ancient human activity deep inside a desert cave

The Wonderwerk Cave site in South Africa is one of very few places on Earth where human activity can be traced back continuously across millennia, and scientists just established the oldest evidence of archaic human habitation in the cave: some 1.8 million years ago.

That's based on an analysis of sedimentary layers containing animal bones, the remnants of burning fires, and Oldowan stone tools: Objects made from simple rocks with flakes chipped off to sharpen them, representing what was once a significant step forward in tool technology.

While tool artifacts at other sites have been backdated as far as 3.3 million years ago, the new findings are now thought to be the earliest sign of continuous prehistoric human living inside a cave – with the use of fire and tools in one fixed location indoors.

The Kalahari desert Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"We can now say with confidence that our human ancestors were making simple Oldowan stone tools inside the Wonderwerk Cave 1.8 million years ago," says geologist Ron Shaar from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in Israel.

"Wonderwerk is unique among ancient Oldowan sites, a tool-type first found 2.6 million years ago in East Africa, precisely because it is a cave and not an open-air occurrence." 

While ancient evidence of wildfires and human fires might get mixed up in open-air sites, that's not the case in the Wonderwerk Cave. What's more, other indicators of humans making fires were found: burnt bones and ash, for example, as well as the tools.

The sediment sample examined in the new study was 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) thick, charting hominin activity in the cave over time. Layers were dated in two ways, first through paleomagnetism, measuring the magnetic signal from clay particles that had drifted into the cave.

These signals, trapped in time, show the direction of Earth's magnetic field in history. As the variation and flipping of this field across the centuries can be charted, scientists can date the clay particles and everything deposited with them.

Secondly, the researchers used burial dating, an analysis of the radioactive decay of particles as they drift out of the glare of cosmic radiation and get buried underground, or, in this case, inside a cave.

Inside the Wonderwerk Cave. (Michael Chazan/Hebrew University of Jerusalem)

"Quartz particles in sand have a built-in geological clock that starts ticking when they enter a cave," says geologist Ari Matmon from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.

"In our lab, we are able to measure the concentrations of specific isotopes in those particles and deduce how much time had passed since those grains of sand entered the cave."

As well as recording the use of Oldowan tools as far back as 1.8 million years ago, the team also spotted the transition to more complex hand axes (over 1 million years ago) and the first deliberate use of fire (around 1 million years ago).

While exciting discoveries continue to be made all across the world, very few places offer such a consistent record of ancient human comings and goings as the sediment layers inside the Wonderwerk Cave – as the new study shows.

"The precise ages of the Wonderwerk sediments are crucial for our understanding of the timing of critical events in hominin biological and cultural evolution in the region," write the researchers in their published paper.

The research has been published in Quaternary Science Reviews.

#Humans | https://sciencespies.com/humans/scientists-find-oldest-evidence-of-ancient-human-activity-deep-inside-a-desert-cave/

Huge study of over 1,400 species could change our understanding of intelligence

When considering matters of intelligence among animals, it's not irrational to assume size matters. Bigger bodies allow for bigger brains, after all, and bigger brains provide the potential real estate for developing better problem-solving skills.

Yet neurons don't work for free, a fact that constrains how nervous systems might evolve in size and complexity in the first place. Just because skulls expand, doesn't mean nature will automatically fill them with grey matter.

Strange as it seems, we know very little about the evolutionary forces responsible for diversifying brain size across the backboned part of the animal kingdom.

So an international team of researchers undertook a huge study on the largest fossil and extant dataset yet assembled, measuring the spaces once occupying the skulls of more than 1,400 species, living and extinct.

Comparing information on body sizes with endocranial data, the team could hunt for consistent patterns and sequences in growth in development that nudges an animal up the IQ ladder.

That search wasn't as straightforward as we might have initially assumed.

"At first sight, the importance of taking the evolutionary trajectory of body size into account may seem unimportant," says evolutionary biologist Jeroen Smaers from Stony Brook University.

"After all, many of the big-brained mammals such as elephants, dolphins, and great apes also have a high brain-to-body size. But this is not always the case."

One animal that bucks this trend is the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus).

These marine big-boys can grow more than 2 meters (nearly 7 feet) in length and weigh around 100 kilograms (220 pounds), putting them roughly in the same ballpark as an adult human. Yet their brain size is more akin to that of a chimpanzee's.

That doesn't make them stupid by any stretch of the imagination. Quite the opposite, sea lions are quick learners that can adapt cognitively to human interactions with ease.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), on the other hand, have a relatively similar mean body mass, with a brain that's two times bigger than the sea lion's. Although nobody has yet dared to challenge one of these voracious predators to a round of trivia, it's probably fair to judge from a safe distance that they're not twice as smart.

Indeed, looking from a neuroanatomical perspective, sea lions have 3.6 times more volume devoted to their smarts, relative to basic autonomic and sensory functions.  

If Californian sea lions are as big as humans, why aren't they as smart as us too? Putting it simply, evolution simply gambled on building them a bigger body and left a slightly smaller brain to make do with the energy it had left.

"We've overturned a long-standing dogma that relative brain size can be equivocated with intelligence," says biologist Kamran Safi, a research scientist at the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour.

"Sometimes, relatively big brains can be the end result of a gradual decrease in body size to suit a new habitat or way of moving – in other words, nothing to do with intelligence at all."

Comparing brain and body sizes preserved in the fossil record also allowed the team to gain insights into historical changes set against a shifting ecological backdrop.

In the wake of the dinosaur-killing impact that ended the Cretaceous, a bunch of tiny mammals such as rats, shrews, and bats experienced significant changes in their brain-body scale – as they got bigger, so did their brains.

Similarly, with the climate cooling in the Late Paleogene 30 million years later, mammals including seals, bears, and our own ancestors took advantage of empty niches to fuel up and build body mass and brain size.

"A big surprise was that much of the variation in relative brain size of mammals that live today can be explained by changes that their ancestral lineages underwent following these cataclysmic events," says Smaers.

None of this is to say generalizations about bigger brains and increased cognitive capacity are completely bunk. It's a fair rule of thumb.

But even our own mighty meat computers bloomed in size and complexity over a period long enough to make it unlikely any one mental trick was driving their growth. Among individuals, bigger doesn't necessarily mean brighter, either.

When it comes to the intelligence of other animals, size is just one thing that matters. Except, of course, when it doesn't.

This research was published in Science Advances.

#Nature | https://sciencespies.com/nature/huge-study-of-over-1400-species-could-change-our-understanding-of-intelligence/

Fact check: Will the oceans be empty of fish by 2048, and other Seaspiracy concerns

Seaspiracy, the Netflix documentary premiered in March 2021 which exposes the darker side to the fishing industry, has caused much controversy since its release. One of the more dramatic claims made in the film was that, due to fishing, all of the fish in the sea will have disappeared by 2048.

To check this fact, we asked 8 experts in fisheries sciences, marine sciences, and ecology: Will the oceans be empty of fish by 2048?. Seven out of eight answered 'extremely unlikely'.

Where did the 2048 prediction come from?

Ali Tabrizi, Seaspiracy's director and narrator, says in the documentary that "if current fishing trends continue, we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048". This claim has been echoed across many news articles and blogs since it was made in 2006, but where does it come from?

A scientific paper published in Science by Boris Worm and colleagues in 2006 which looked at the decline of marine populations and species. They found that loss of marine biodiversity has important effects on the ecosystem.

In one sentence in the concluding paragraph, they also said that the "current trend is of serious concern because it projects the global collapse of all taxa currently fished by the mid-21st century".

Why is the 2048 prediction inaccurate?

Dr Michael Melnychuk, an expert in fisheries sciences from Washington University, highlights some of the issues with the 2006 prediction. He says that "the definitions of 'collapsed' by the authors are based on catch data, but these do not necessarily reflect abundances of fish populations".

He also points out that the method used by the authors to extrapolate data into the future was not realistic.

Dr Robert Steneck, an expert in oceanography from Maine University, highlights that "three years after the initial publication Worm et al 2009 (also published in Science) pointed out that many fish stocks are rebuilding globally".

Since 2006, the authors have also tried to emphasize the broader conclusions of their findings instead of this prediction.

There have also been numerous scientific publications heavily criticizing the 2048 prediction for the reasons highlighted by Dr Melnychuk, but unfortunately this claim has stuck.

Dr Melnychuk highlights a final reason why the 2048 prediction is inaccurate, it "assumes that our hands are tied and these trends will continue indefinitely".

Does it matter that there are inaccuracies in Seaspiracy?

Seapiracy claimed that oceans will be empty of fish by 2048 even though this prediction has been strongly refuted for over 10 years. Other similarly contentious claims were made throughout the film in order to expose the darker side of the fishing industry and suggest that the only way to save the oceans is to stop fishing altogether.

Some of the experts believe that this overly negative image of the fishing industry could do more harm than good to the oceans.

Dr Alec Christie, an expert in marine biology from the University of Cambridge, says "the way this movie used data from scientific papers was a good example of questionable research practices - cherry-picking and unjustifiable and opaquely extrapolating data beyond the bounds of the study."

Dr Holden Harris, an expert in Fisheries Sciences from Florida University, adds that Seaspiracy omitted some of the achievements in sustainable fishing.

"The convenient oversight of not including the many, many success stories of good management guided by science and community (e.g., US fisheries) provides an extremist view of the issue," says Harris.

"I also personally know some of the interviewees in the film, who have spent their life work in ocean conservation, and do not deserve the false light cast on to them. This is not how progress is made."

However, not all the experts agreed that the inaccuracies of Seaspiracy mean it does more harm than good. Dr Simon Allen, an expert in marine science from Bristol University, points out that "at the end of the day, love it or loathe it, Seaspiracy has got some tongues wagging and people asking questions."

Is overfishing an issue?

All the experts agreed with one claim made by Seaspiracy: overfishing is a serious issue.

Dr Harris says that "today, it's likely that 1/3 of the world's fish stocks worldwide are overexploited or depleted. This is certainly an issue that deserves widespread concern."

Dr Allen adds that "overfishing is still the biggest problem on the global high seas".

Dr Christie's concluding opinion on Seaspiracy is that "we all agree that its message of the ecological harm of industrial fisheries is a major urgent issue, but we need to present facts not fiction and unite, build consensus, and use rational arguments to convince people to change."

The takeaway

It is unlikely that the oceans will be empty of fish by 2048. Although experts disagreed on the effectiveness of the Seaspiracy documentary to help protect the oceans, they all agreed that overfishing is a major issue.

Article based on 8 expert answers to this question: Will the oceans be empty of fish by 2048?

This expert response was published in partnership with independent fact-checking platform Metafact.io. Subscribe to their weekly newsletter here.

#Environment | https://sciencespies.com/environment/fact-check-will-the-oceans-be-empty-of-fish-by-2048-and-other-seaspiracy-concerns/

Scientists finally uncovered a major efficiency flaw holding back solar cells

Perovskite has a lot going for it in our search for a cheap, efficient way to harvest solar energy. With a dusting of organic molecules, these crystalline structures have been able to convert more than a quarter of the light falling onto them into electricity.

Theoretically, perovskite crystals made with the right mix of materials could push this limit beyond 30 percent, outperforming silicon-based solar cells (which is currently the most abundant solar panel technology), and at a much lower cost. It's all good on paper, but in reality, something has been holding the technology back.

Combine calcium, titanium, and oxygen under the right conditions and you'll form repeating cages of molecules that look like a bunch of boxes joined at their corners.

Regardless of the elements involved, this particular crystalline pattern is called a perovskite structure. Make one from lead iodide, throw in an organic compound like methylammonium for a positive charge, splash on some sunshine, and you'll be on your way to generating a current of electricity.

To achieve efficiencies beyond 25 percent in this energy transformation, engineers quickly learned it pays to ensure there's plenty of iodide, seemingly to ensure any defects in the perovskite crystal lattice are well and truly filled.  

But this assumption was never fully tested, so researchers from the University of California, Santa Barbara in the US went back to first principles to determine what was really going on.

Using cutting-edge computing to analyze the quantum behaviors influencing electrons as they migrate through the hybrid mix of organic molecules and lead iodide structures, the team discovered that adding more iodide wasn't exactly the wise move experiments suggested.

It turns out the flaw in the system wasn't where anybody had expected.

Rather than a flaw in the perovskite cages, it was the organic component – previously considered to be an unbreakable unit – that came with a rather frustrating weakness. It turns out their hydrogen can snap right off.

"Methylammonium lead iodide is the prototypical hybrid perovskite," says lead researcher and materials engineer, Xie Zhang.

"We found that it is surprisingly easy to break one of the bonds and remove a hydrogen atom on the methylammonium molecule."

That hydrogen vacancy forms a rather inconvenient pothole in the electrical highway, impeding the current generated as sunlight knocks electrons free from the surrounding perovskite structure.

"When these charges get caught at the vacancy, they can no longer do useful work, such as charging a battery or powering a motor, hence the loss in efficiency," says Zhang.

Though the process is entirely theoretical at this stage, the calculations also allow the team to find ways around the flaw.

One possibility, matched by experimental findings, would be to shoot for a middle ground in iodide concentrations.

Swapping out the organic molecule for another cation such as cesium, or better yet, a similar kind of organic compound like formamidinium, might also lead to a radical improvement in efficiency.

Transforming this theoretical work into a practical method of electricity generation will require a lot more testing and planning. What works in calculations would need to be woven into processes that grow flawless wafers of perovskite around molecules of formamidinium.

For perovskite to have a hope of dominating the energy production market, it will need to show its worth on both a financial and functional level.

Projections on silicon suggest there's still some way to go before it hits its theoretical limits beyond 30 percent.

But given the progress perovskite has made in just the past decade, perovskite solar cells could be due for their big break in the not too distant future.

This research was published in Nature Materials.

#Tech | https://sciencespies.com/tech/scientists-finally-uncovered-a-major-efficiency-flaw-holding-back-solar-cells/

Stratolaunch aircraft returns to the skies after two-year hiatus

WASHINGTON — Stratolaunch flew its giant aircraft for the first time in more than two years April 29, marking the start of a new test flight campaign to prepare the plane to serve as a platform for hypersonic vehicles.

The aircraft, nicknamed Roc, took off from the Mojave Air and Space Port in California at 10:28 a.m. Eastern, landing back at the airport three hours and 14 minutes later. The plane achieved a maximum altitude of nearly 4,300 meters and top speed of 320 kilometers per hours during the flight.

“Today’s flight was very successful. We accomplished all of our test objectives,” Zachary Krevor, chief operating officer of Stratolaunch, said in a call with reporters after the flight. “We have not seen anything anomalous, and we are very pleased with the condition of the aircraft upon landing.”

The flight was the first since the plane’s inaugural flight in April 2019, also in Mojave. Since then, the company, established by the late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen, was sold to a private equity group, Cerebus. Under that new ownership, Stratolaunch has shifted direction from being a launch services provider, using the plane as a platform for an air-launch system, to using it to support hypersonic testing using a vehicle it is developing called Talon-A.

The company also used the time to upgrade the aircraft. Those changes, Krevor said, include a new environmental control system, additional instruments and “increasing the robustness” of the plane’s flight control system intended to improve its handling qualities.

This flight marks the beginning of a flight test campaign expected to continue through the next year. “Over the next year, the airplane will go higher, it will go faster, until we are in the envelope that’s required to drop our Talon testbed so it can achieve hypersonic flight,” said Daniel Millman, chief technical officer of Stratolaunch.

Krevor said that test campaign will include a “range of flights” with increasing complexity, but declined to say how many flights were planned. “The exact number of flights will be dependent on how we are able to complete the test objectives of each flight,” he said.

In parallel to that flight test program, Stratolaunch is working on prototypes of its Talon-A hypersonic vehicle. That includes a “separation test article” that will be flown on the aircraft early next year and dropped to test the safe separation of Talon from the plane.

That will be followed by the first powered Talon test vehicle. “Early next year we’re going to go hypersonic with an expendable vehicle to expand the envelope,” Millman said. That will be followed by reusable vehicles that will land on a runway and can be reflown up to 25 times.

Millman said Stratolaunch is currently testing Hadley, a 5,000-pounds-force engine from Ursa Major Technologies, for use on Talon-A. “We’ll be running it on a test stand, making sure the propulsion and integration is what we expect it to be before we start putting it on the vehicle,” he said.

Stratolaunch is looking to offer its vehicle system to the Defense Department to test hypersonic technologies. “One of the areas that we’re looking at is how can we help the Department of Defense in mitigating risk for a lot of their expensive flight testing,” he said. “What we’re doing is providing a path for them to test a lot of their technologies in a simpler way, a repeatable way, a reusable way.”

#Space | https://sciencespies.com/space/stratolaunch-aircraft-returns-to-the-skies-after-two-year-hiatus/